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Scrum Agile Estimation, a fundamental aspect of Agile project management. Providing teams with a structured approach to estimating effort, time, and resources required for project activities. The guide emphasizes the importance of collaborative estimation techniques such as Planning Poker, which foster consensus and transparency among team members. By leveraging historical data, expert judgment, and team input, Scrum teams can generate accurate and reliable estimates that inform decision-making and mitigate project risks. The SBOK™ Guide also highlights the iterative nature of Agile estimation, encouraging teams to continuously refine and adjust their estimates based on evolving project dynamics. Through techniques such as Relative Estimation and Story Points, teams can effectively prioritize and plan their work, ensuring that they deliver value to stakeholders in a timely manner. By embracing the principles outlined in the SBOK™ Guide, organizations can cultivate a culture of trust, accountability, and predictability, driving successful outcomes in Agile projects.

Scrum Estimation is a collaborative process within the Scrum framework used to predict the effort required to complete work items. It involves assigning relative size or effort to user stories, tasks, or features to facilitate planning and prioritization. Unlike traditional time-based estimation, Scrum uses techniques like Story Points or Planning Poker, where the team collectively determines the complexity and effort required for each item. This approach encourages team consensus, transparency, and adaptability, allowing for more accurate forecasting and better decision-making during sprint planning. Scrum Estimation promotes continuous improvement by enabling teams to reflect on past performance and adjust their estimations accordingly, ultimately fostering a more efficient and productive development process.

Out of several estimation techniques involved in Scrum, few are noted below.

1. Wideband Delphi
2. Planning Poker
3. Fist of Five
4. Affinity Estimation

Wideband Delphi

Wideband Delphi is a group-based estimation technique for determining how much work is involved and how long it will take to complete the work. Individuals within the team anonymously provide estimations for each item and the initial estimates are plotted on a chart. The team then discusses the factors that influenced their own estimates and proceed to a second round of estimation. This process is repeated until the individual estimates are close to each other and a consensus for the final estimate can be reached.

Planning Poker

In Planning Poker, each team member is assigned a deck of cards. Each card is numbered in sequence with each number representing the complexity of the User Story (or task) in terms of time or effort. The Scrum Team members assess the User Story (or task) to better understand it. If there is no consensus, then the team members discuss reasons for selecting different cards or estimates. After this discussion, each member picks a card again. This sequence continues until all the assumptions are understood, misunderstandings are resolved, and a majority or consensus is reached. Planning Poker advocates greater interaction and enhanced communication among Scrum Team members. It also facilitates independent thinking by participants, thus avoiding the phenomenon of group think.

Fist of Five

Fist of Five is a simple and fast mechanism that can be used as an estimation tool, as well as a general group consensus-building technique. After an initial discussion about a particular User Story (or task) being estimated, Scrum Team members are each asked to vote on a scale of one to five using their fingers, with the number of fingers indicating the relative estimate value. Team members with outlier estimates (i.e., the highest and lowest values) explain their rational for their estimates to the group and these are discussed. After this discussion, another Fist of Five round is conducted or a collective decision is made.

Affinity Estimation

Affinity Estimation, such as T-shirt sizing, is a technique used to quickly estimate a large number of User Stories. Using sticky notes or index cards and tape, the team places User Stories on a wall or other surface, in order from small to large. Each team member begins with a subset of User Stories from the Prioritized Product Backlog to place in order by their relative size. This initial placement is done in silence. Once everyone has placed their User Stories on the wall, the team reviews all of the placements and can move User Stories around as appropriate. This second part of the exercise involves a discussion about the placements. Finally, the Product Owner will indicate some sizing categories on the wall. These categories can be small, medium, or large, or they may be numbered using story point values to indicate relative size. The team will then move the User Stories into these categories as the final step in the process. Some key benefits of this approach are that the process is very transparent, visible to everyone, and is easy to conduct.